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ahhh A Crisp Crypto Winter Morning

This is more topical, but crypto is in the middle of a very big down draft, Ethereum is sitting about $1200 and Bitcoin at $23,000. I think anyone who has been around for a while in crypto was waiting for something more along this lines for a draw down. Crypto isn’t big enough or well established to have the volatility characteristics of something like Gold or the Stock Market, so it was bound to crash harder in the end, and that appears to be what we are getting.

For normie people out there this is the time to be thinking, “ohh man that was a mistake look how far its gone down, ohh well on to the next get rich quick idea.” or “What a bunch of fools who were into that crypto thing, that’s what they get for doing something so dumb.” Many are going to hear their more uninformed, or maybe slightly informed relatives says stuff like, “isn’t that bitcoin thing over it crashed right?” This is the time the real FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) comes out, not during the bull market when most of that was just people asking legitimate questions about if projects were going to work long-term.

Let me be clear, this is the time to stick around and get move involved. This is the time that at least in the past (and there is of course no guarantee in the future) has made people a whole lot of money. My first round I bought Bitcoin on Mt. Gox which was an exchange in Japan, I watched it zoom from around $150 to over $1000, I was so excited, and then the exchange got hacked, I lost my bitcoin and I got wrecked as they say. Now because I’m a relatively risk conscience person I did not put in more than I could lose and so I survived that without too much financial trauma. But that didn’t stop me, I was still fascinated by the goals of Bitcoin and what would develop into Crypto in general. I stuck around, I learned, and I bought a little at a time when prices were low. That set me up for the last two cycles which have been very rewarding. And when prices went up, I understood that some of that was unsustainable so I sold and diversified into other less risky investments.

Let me predict the future for you… Crypto will continue to have cycles like it has in the past, because that is the nature of markets and emerging technology, BUT! Overtime as crypto grows larger and larger, as it becomes more and more useful in society its cycles will look more and more like the stock market. Don’t expect a 100x out of the next cycle, but 10x’s are still very possible.

Welcome to the winter! Its time to learn and grow and get ready for what I think will be yet another cycle of the world recognizing what this technology means over the long-term.

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